IGBT market ushered in the tide of reshuffle,It is estimated that Chinese MOSFET manufacturers will accelerate the closure
Industry sources said that since last year, the capacitance rose by more than ten times, MOS, IGBT as a whole rose more than 40%, the price of power devices in the future is still strong for a long time.
What‘s more, in the current situation where the capacity of upstream wafers continues to be tight, the capacity that exceeds supply will only go to protect the customers. It is very difficult for small and medium-sized customers to get orders, and the pressure for survival is very high. The entire power device market began to “shuffle”. Many small manufacturers in China, especially in southern China, are accelerating.
Extended delivery of MOSFETs, IGBTs, and diodes to 20-40 weeks at present.
As usual,the lead times for MOSFETs, rectifiers, and thyristors are around 8 - 12 weeks, but now the delivery of MOSFETs, rectifiers, and thyristors has been further extended to 20 to 40 weeks.
With the recovery of power semiconductor device(IGBT) market conditions, demand continues to be strong, but limited by the production capacity, the original delivery cycle began to extend. Rising raw material prices, tight supply of silicon wafers, and strong demand are the main drivers behind supply shortages.
With low-voltage MOSFETs, the delivery period is more or less than 40 weeks, among which the delivery period of automotive devices is particularly significant.
Infineon offers a wide range of medium voltage products (40-200V) after the acquisition of IR. However, the price has increased and the delivery period has also been extended. The SOT-23 device has a delivery period of 30 + weeks and the automotive device delivery time is 28+ weeks.
The delivery period of ON Semiconductor (formerly Fairchild) small package (SOC-223 and smaller) has been extended, and the delivery period of dual, complementary, and co-pack devices has been the most affected.
ON Semiconductor‘s automotive parts and QFN 5x6, sot-23, sot-223 package products have a delivery problem.
ST‘s back-end and front-end capacities have all been set. Q3 and Q4 are estimated to be spent during the shortage of goods.
Vishay expands its mid- and low-voltage product portfolio with competitive prices for new products. A large number of P-channel devices are provided. The capacity of Q1 and Q2 in 2018 is full.
The situation of high-voltage MOSFETs is not optimistic too much.
Infineon is currently focusing more on the P7, C7, CFD series, while the delivery of the traditionally cost-increasing devices (C3, C6, P6 series) also extends to 24-28 weeks. Among them, P7 products provide leading price/performance and better delivery period.
ST, which still has strong demand, is currently producing full capacity. The M2, M5 and K5 series have better specifications and prices. It is the sole supplier of silicon carbide FETs rated at 200 degrees Celsius. The introduction of 650V SiC can compete with high-performance IGBTs and can replace super-junction devices.
The current production capacity of Ixys, which is being acquired by Littelfuse, is full, and the delivery period is difficult to improve. Above 1000V products have advantages.
ON Semiconductor ( Fairchild) offers a wide range of high-voltage FETs to the mass market. The delivery period is uneven, but it seems to be better than the competition.
Vishay continues to develop high-voltage product lines. Super-junction 650V FETs are comparable to Infineon and STMicroelectronics. Superjunction devices have been shipped for more than 30 weeks and conventional devices (IR) have been delivered within 20 weeks.
The IGBT delivery period is still longer.
ON Semiconductor (formerly Fairchild) is good at field-cut IGBTs, and the delivery of traditional IGBTs is increasing, but some families can provide die banks. Due to the high demand for technology leads to back-end capacity constraints.
Infineon, the world leader in IGBTs, has the most abundant high-power and low-power IGBTs after acquiring IR. The CO-Pack product (rectifier combination) has reached the delivery period of more than 30 weeks and is still being extended.
STMicroelectronics invested in R&D for this type of product, providing high-power modules that compete with Infineon, Semikron and Mitsubishi. The capacity will be full in the next 12 months and the delivery period will be 50 weeks.
8-inch wafer shortage single chip rose to 300 yuan, 12-inch production line can not ease
Since the beginning of last year, power devices have been out of stock one after another. The supply of 8-inch wafers is in short supply, and the market demand is strong. This has caused upstream prices to rise. Since the beginning of this year, power devices such as MOSFETs and IGBTs have been continuously out of stock prices, and the delivery trend has presented a situation of full extension. Some MOSFETs have been delivered for more than 40 weeks and have even been sold out.
The shortage of 8-inch silicon wafers and the impact of fab shortages gradually penetrated the market, and power supply ICs, fingerprint ICs, LED driver chips, and MOSFETs are all 8-inch production lines. Now from the perspective of influencing the scope of manufacturers and the range of product lines, the supply situation of 8-inch silicon wafers may become increasingly tense. On the other hand, the expansion of 8-inch silicon wafers will only take place from 2018 to 2019.
The upstream factory said that since last year, the price increase of MOSFETs and IGBTs has exceeded 40%, of which the overall price increase for 8-inch wafers has been close to 30%. The previous monolithic 8-inch wafers were priced at US$200 and are now rising Price to 300 US dollars, so MOSFET, IGBT and other power devices more price increases reflect the price, 8-inch wafer supply is in short supply, a large gap.
So, can the 8-inch production line‘s wafer capacity not be able to rely on a 12-inch production line to solve the problem? According to the above-mentioned sources, in the power devices, the 12-inch production line has a very low probability of mass production, because it involves the problems of the industrial chain, and power devices may involve back-end processing and packaging-related issues. The 12-inch production line is Solving the problem is unlikely in the short term. Now, power devices are mainly focused on 6-inch and 8-inch capacity. The 8-inch capacity is more cost-effective, and the 6-inch device is mainly used as a traditional high-voltage power device.
More importantly, the equipment of 8-inch production lines is now scarce, and it is difficult to quickly build 8-inch production lines in the short term. According to industry sources, the world‘s largest equipment manufacturers have gone to 12-inch devices, and 8-inch devices have basically stopped production. The domestic 8-inch production line can only buy second-hand 8-inch line equipment, but now there are not many used equipment. Only by waiting for a domestic manufacturer to open a new one.
However, it is not always necessary to build an 8-inch production line. The personage inside course of study reveals, under the current market conditions, the cost of building a new 8-inch production line is too high, and now it costs 3 to 3.5 billion yuan to build an 8-inch line, but it may cost 2 billion yuan to build 8 inches in the off-season. Until now, the cost-effectiveness of input to output is too low.
In fact, people in the industry basically think that the current price of power devices is reasonable. In the past, the competition in the power device market was fierce, and the quotations to customers were basically reduced by 5-10% year by year. The situation of low prices was not reasonable for the semiconductor industry. The upstream manufacturer stated that the price of wafers has stabilized, and that it is of little significance to increase prices, because it has now risen to the upper limit of a reasonable range. However, in the tight supply market, the future trend of power devices remains stable. Rise.
Huge gap, consumption of consumer electronics is better than ever
"Any industry has become a key incentive for this, just look at the process to see what is driving such a shift." For the current status of power devices continued out of stock prices, an original Shanghai VP said, mainly new energy vehicles The rapid rise of the market caused a huge demand gap. Even if the industry leader Infineon supplies all its production capacity to automotive electronics, it is far from enough.
Judging from the current global power semiconductor market pattern, it is basically occupied by international giants such as Infineon and ON Semiconductor. According to the data released by the Leqing think tank, Infineon’s market share of power MOSFETs reached 26.4%, occupying the top position, and the second place is ON Semiconductor.
The above VP said that due to the high profitability of the high-end automotive electronics market, Infineon will certainly give up some low-end production capacity. Of course, this is done through continuous iterations. Infineon will first give up some of the mid-end consumer capacity, and then At the low end, they gave up a wave. In this case, there will be a huge gap in the consumer electronics market. Coupled with the transfer effect of the big manufacturers, the price increase of power devices will quickly spread.
Yuanda Investment Consultant also said in its analysis of this round of MOSFET market that Infineon, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments, Renesas and other major international manufacturers have turned to high-margin industrial and automotive mid-to-high-end products. MOSFETs for consumer electronics products such as PCs and mobile phones.
In the consumer electronics market, as more and more mobile phones become more and more complex, more and more power devices are needed. The above VP revealed that, with MOSFET applications as an example, the fast charge current of mobile phones is getting larger and larger, and the consumed capacity is also getting more and more. The original MOSFET chip is about 8 million wafers with about 40,000 MOSFETs. After a large flow, a wafer can only do about 5,000 MOSFETs.
As a result, the consumption of wafers such as consumer electronics and other low-end markets will become even more severe. The shortage of wafer production capacity will also be highlighted. With the high profitability of new energy markets, international companies will certainly give up some of the low-end consumer products. market.
In addition, the demand for MOSFETs in the fast-paced wireless charging market is also very large. A wireless charger will use 4-6 MOSFETs. It is conceivable that tens of millions of wireless chargers are required for MOSFETs. How big is it, but at this stage, the wireless charging market is still a process of growth, and the demand will gradually increase. In addition, fast charging power is increasing, and low-voltage and high-current modes are gradually becoming dominant. This will also involve the upgrading of MOSFETs, and the consumption capacity will be higher than ever.
Small domestic manufacturers face closures and the industry begins to reshuffle
With the continuous tight production capacity of upstream wafers, international giants such as Infineon have turned to new energy high-end markets. The consumption of power devices in the low-end and mid-end markets has been more successful than ever before. On the one hand, they are indeed brought to the domestic power device manufacturers. Opportunities have also brought confusion on the other hand.
According to the original manufacturer of power devices, the prices of power devices such as MOSFETs and IGBTs are already very high. For the current situation, the dilemma is that even if the price goes up again, it will be difficult to deliver the goods. Not great. Of course, from the point of view of profit, of course, the higher the better.
According to another industry source, many original manufacturers are afraid to offer their customers free quotes because they are worried that if the price of the newspaper is accepted by the customer, it will be even more troublesome if it is not delivered. If the price increases can be shipped, that‘s OK, but now the key is that many of the original manufacturers cannot ship.
“We are now paying attention to the changes in market conditions on the one hand, and on the other hand are still considering how to solve the problem of production capacity. This is the top priority.” The above VP said that the production capacity will continue to be tight and there are no signs of easing, but the price The upward trend will deviate from the value curve, and the price increase will be of little significance, because we must also consider the customer-focused relationship, and it is impossible to rise too far.
As a result, orders for MOSFETs or IGBTs such as M&G, New Tang, etc. have already been claimed at the end of the year. Previously, it was reported that Mao Zedong and Xintang Foundry‘s third-quarter found prices have risen. The price of 6-inch wafer foundry rose by 10% to 20%, and the price of 8-inch wafer foundry also increased by 5 to 10%. %.
According to industry sources, there is still a large probability of such price fluctuations. CR Microelectronics is now bidding through a mode of price increase. In the case of a market that is still out of stock, the price is 5-10% per month. Price increases, but the overall number is limited.
Under this current situation, where the supply capacity exceeds the supply price will go along with the price increase? The above VP indicated that the capacity in short supply will only protect the customers, and it is very difficult for small and medium-sized customers to get orders. The pressure for survival is high. The entire power device market has also started to “shuffle”. Small and medium-sized manufacturers of power devices in China, especially in southern China, are accelerating and have a great impact on the downstream market.
On the one hand, the downstream manufacturers were shuffled once. Some small power device manufacturers couldn‘t play, they couldn‘t get their own wafers, their profits were low, and one wave of price increases was dragged to death; on the other hand, From a positive point of view, we will make everyone pay more attention to product quality and pay more attention to brands. The downside is that it increases the burden on the downstream machine manufacturers, because the overall machine profits are very low, so that in the short term, the rapid growth Cost.
The same is true. Nowadays, many small factories in South China, such as Shenzhen, are getting more and more sad. The first is that the supply chain is incomplete, and the second is that there is no price advantage. Because wafers are not available, low-end customers are not moving, and end customers are also Can not maintain, so there will be a number of small companies have closed down, the entire power devices, especially MOSFET manufacturers will open the shuffle situation.
However, in the long run, the entire domestic power device market will undergo a transition from disorder to order. Smaller companies will disappear or merge with them. The degree of integration will become higher and higher. This is also a good thing for the industry. This market will eventually lead to larger players. The control, supply, and price of the entire resource materials can all be controlled within a reasonable range. This agglomeration effect will become stronger and stronger in the future.
It is worth emphasizing that, from the current point of view, the trend of price increase for the entire power device will be very strong in the next 2-3 years because the newly opened 8-inch production line is basically unable to meet the existing huge gap, and it will start to increase this year. The 8-inch production line has to wait two years before it can enter the mass production phase. What‘s more, the equipment is not necessarily available now. This means that in the next 2-3 years, the entire power device market will continue to grow and the overall price will steadily rise.